Latest election polls indicate Biden ahead but a close race in key states could spell Trump victory

Posted on November 04, 2020, 6:00 pm
2 mins

According to final opinion polls, Joe Biden is still poised to win Tuesday’s presidential elections, but a neck-and-neck race in several battleground states gives Donald Trump hopes of continuing his presidency and makes the election more on level pegging than initially anticipated.

Biden currently holds a substantial lead in national polling, at anywhere between four and 10 percentage points, according to a collection of polls released on Monday. The poll aggregator fivethirtyeight.com shows the Democratic nominee with an overall lead of 8.4-points, while Real Clear Politics declares a lead of 6.7.

But Trump seems to be doing better in some of the key states he must win to ensure another term.

According to leading polls, in Florida, the largest of the critical battleground states, Biden is ahead by a margin of 1.7 points.

A final poll from Reuters/Ipsos on Monday afternoon had Biden winning an outright majority among all likely voters: 52% to 44%.

Analysts have said that Trump must hang on to Florida, which he won against Hillary Clinton by a miniscule 1.2 points in the 2016 elections, and its 29 electoral college votes in order to get to the winning number of 270.

If Trump wins Florida, Biden might turn his attention to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three so-called blue wall states that Trump seized from the Democrats in the previous election.

According to Real Clear Politics, In Pennsylvania, which offers 20 electoral votes, Biden maintains an average 2.5-point lead. In Michigan, with 16 votes, he has a 4.8 point advantage, and in Wisconsin, which has 10 votes, his lead is 6.6 points. Winning all three states and retaining all states won by Clinton in 2016 would, most likely, put Biden in the White House.  

Biden’s supporters, however, would also be cautious when it comes to trusting polls as Clinton had a similar national lead over Trump in the 2016 election. Even though she ended up winning the popular vote by 3 million ballots, she lost in numerous swing states which resulted in Trump becoming the president.

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